Monday, January 5, 2009 

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Stock Market Outlook

This chart summarizes Kobren Insight Management's tactical asset allocation decisions. We reveal our outlook for seven disparate asset classes. If the arrow is in the yellow part of the chart, then our outlook is mostly neutral between the two distinct asset classes. If the arrow is in the green, we have a clear preference for one of the asset classes. The direction of the arrow reflects our latest move.

The current Tactical Asset Allocation Decisions is also available in PDF format (see below).

Red Shim

Tactical Asset Allocation Decisions: January 2009


Arrows indicate current position and direction of movement Arrow Arrow
  Overweight Neutral Overweight  
Sub-Asset Class  
  Versus  
  Sub-Asset Class


Black Shim

Stocks 
Arrow
 Bonds/Cash

Stock valuations are the most attractive in decades. High quality bonds and cash look expensive.


Black Shim

Large Cap Stocks 
Arrow Left
    Small and
 Mid Cap Stocks

Small caps may typically perform better in stock market rallies, but valuations and fundamentals favor large caps.


Black Shim

Value Stocks 
Arrow Left
 Growth Stocks

Value sectors have been beaten down in recent months, making them more attractive moving forward.


Black Shim

Domestic Stocks 
Arrow Right
 International Stocks

International stocks look even cheaper than domestic stocks.


Black Shim

Developed  
Int'l Markets 
Arrow left
 Emerging Markets

Emerging markets still have superior growth prospects moving forward.


Black Shim

High Quality Bonds 
Arrow Right
 High Yield Bonds

Corporate bonds have their most attractive valuations in decades.


Black Shim

Long-Term Bonds 
Arrow Right
 Short-Term Bonds

Inflation remains long-term concern; yields may be too low to compensate.

Black Shim

 
If you prefer, the current Tactical Asset Allocation Decisions is also available in PDF format. The PDF will open in a new window. You will need Adobe Reader to view this document - click here to Download Adobe Reader.

acrobat

 




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